Effects of different phases of an invitational screening program on breast cancer incidence

The aim of this study was to quantify the effects of separate phases of an invitational screening program on breast cancer incidence at different ages. Our database included detailed municipality-specific information about invitations for mass-screening for breast cancer in 267 Finnish municipalities from time period 1987-2001. The age range was 50-74. For this study, the program was divided into 7 separate phases, and those that had not been invited served as a baseline. The incidence rate was modeled using Poisson regression. To study the differences between age groups within each program phase, an interaction term between age group and phase of screening was included in the model. The modeling was done separately for localized breast cancers, nonlocalized breast cancers and all stages combined. For localized cancers, the risk compared to the noninvited increased during the first years of the 2-year screening rounds in all age groups, and declined below the baseline during the second years. This effect was larger during the first round compared to the subsequent ones. In nonlocalized cancers, a clear incidence peak was detected only during the first year of the first round. A decreasing post screening effect was detected in nonlocalized cancers in women aged 60-69, but not in localized cancers. Cumulating over ages 50-74, extra incidence caused by regular screening in localized cancers was 5.2% if the program was continued up to age 59, and 28.0% if it continued up to age 69. Corresponding figures for nonlocalized cancers were decreases of 19.8% and 20.9%, respectively.