Prognostic factors of primary biliary cirrhosis detected by health screening

The liver cirrhosis is likely to differ in the Japanese and Western populations. Thus, we performed a retrospective cohort analysis by a review of clinical records to clarify prognostic factors after the onset of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) detected by health screening.

The subjects were 52 patients with PBC. Thirty-nine factors were evaluated concerning clinical data and extracted prognostic factors using the Cox proportional hazard model.

The mean duration of the follow-up period was 5.1 years, during which 6 (11.5%) of the patients died. The cumulative survival rate after the onset of PBC was 93.4% after 5 year, and 67.8% after 10 years. Multivariate analysis indicated 2 factors, i.e. the body mass index (BMI), and IgG, as independent prognostic factors. Their hazard ratios were 0.399 (per 1 kg/m2 of BMI) and 1.282 (per 100 mg/dL of IgG). The prognostic index (PI) was calculated by the following formula using these 2 factors. PI = 0.919 x BMI+0.249 x IgG.

The prediction of the outcome using PI based on the 2 factors provides additional information for the determination of the therapeutic approach in PBC after health screening.