Analysis of primary fine particle national ambient air quality standard metrics

In accordance with the Clean Air Act, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently reviewing its National Ambient Air Quality Standards for particulate matter, which are required to provide an adequate margin of safety to populations, including susceptible subgroups. Based on the latest scientific, health, and technical information about particle pollution, EPA staff recommends establishing more protective health-based fine particle standards. Since the last standards review, epidemiologic studies have continued to find associations between short-term and long-term exposure to particulate matter and cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality at current pollution levels. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal variability of fine particulate (PM2.5) monitoring data for the Northeast and the continental United States to assess the protectiveness of various levels, forms, and combinations of 24-hr and annual health-based standards currently recommended by EPA staff and the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee. Recommended standards have the potential for modest or substantial increases in protection in the Northeast, ranging from an additional 13-83% of the population of the region who are living in areas not likely to meet new standards and thereby benefiting from compliance with more protective air pollution controls. Within recommended standard ranges, an optimal 24-hr (98th percentile)/annual standard suite occurs at 30/12 microg/m3, providing short- and long-term health protection for a substantial percentage of both Northeast (84%) and U.S. (78%) populations. In addition, the Northeast region will not benefit as widely as the nation as a whole if less stringent standards are selected. Should the 24-hr (98th percentile) standard be set at 35 microg/m3, Northeast and U.S. populations will receive 16-48% and 7-17% less protection than a 30 microg/m3 standard, respectively, depending on the level of the annual standard. A 30/12 microg/m3 standard suite also provides nearly equivalent 24-hr and annual control of PM2.5 distributions across the United States, thereby ensuring a more uniform and consistent level of protection than unmatched or "controlling" and "backstop" standards. This could occur even within EPA staff's recommended range of standard suites, where 22-43% of the monitors in the country could meet a controlling standard but fail to meet the combined backstop standard, resulting in inconsistent short- and long-term protection across the country. An equivalent standards combination of 30/12 microg/m3 would minimize the wide variation of protectiveness of 24-hr and annual PM2.5 concentrations. Furthermore, given recent associations of subdaily exposures and acute adverse health effects, in the absence of a subdaily averaging metric, a stringent 24-hr standard will more effectively control maximum hourly and multihourly peak concentrations than a weaker standard.