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Predictors of serious bacterial infection in children aged 3 to 36 months with fever without source
1Accident and Emergency Department, Changi General Hospital, Singapore. pak_liang_goh@cgh.com.sg
Insights
Identifying serious bacterial infection in children with fever without source is challenging. Elevated white blood cell counts and prolonged fever duration are key predictors of infection risk in young children.
Area of Science:
- Pediatrics
- Infectious Diseases
- Clinical Diagnostics
Background:
- Fever without source is common in children, but identifying serious bacterial infections (SBIs) remains difficult.
- Current methods for risk stratification of SBIs in febrile children are unreliable.
- This study addresses the need for better predictors of SBI in young children.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify predictors of serious bacterial infection in children aged 3-36 months presenting with fever without source.
- To improve the diagnostic accuracy for SBI in pediatric patients.
- To provide clinicians with evidence-based tools for risk assessment.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective review of inpatient records from a major pediatric hospital.
- Inclusion criteria: children aged 3-36 months with fever without source (ICD codes 038, 079, 780).
- Statistical analysis to identify significant predictors of SBI.
Main Results:
- 17 out of 86 (19.8%) enrolled children had SBI.
- White blood cell (WBC) count ≥16,000/mm³ (OR 6.9) and fever duration >3 days (OR 3.8) were significant predictors of SBI.
- A combination of WBC <16,000/mm³ and fever ≤3 days showed high negative predictive value (1.0) and sensitivity (1.0).
Conclusions:
- Duration of fever and WBC count are significant predictors of SBI in children with fever without source.
- These predictors can help estimate the risk of SBI in the target pediatric population.
- The findings support improved clinical decision-making for febrile children.
Introduction:
Children commonly present with fever without source yet there is no reliable and consistent method of identifying those at risk of serious bacterial infection. In this study, we sought to identify predictors of serious bacterial infection in children aged between three to 36 months with fever without source.
Methods:
Inpatient records of all children aged three to 36 months admitted from the Emergency Department of Singapore's main paediatric hospital between October 2001 to February 2002 with International Classification of Diseases (ninth revision) diagnosis codes 038 (septicaemia), 079 (viral fever), or 780 (pyrexia of unknown origin), were retrieved and reviewed. Patients identified as having fever without source were enrolled.
Results:
Of 86 enrolled children, 17 (19.8 percent) had serious bacterial infection. Duration of fever and white blood cell count were found to be significant predictors. Children with white blood cell count equal to or greater than 16,000/cubic mm had 6.9 times (95 percent confidence interval [CI] is 1.7 to 28.4) increased risk of serious bacterial infection, while children with fever of duration exceeding three days before presentation had 3.8 times (95 percent CI is 1.1 to 13.1) increased risk of serious bacterial infection. A combination of white blood cell count less than 16,000/cubic mm and duration of fever three days or less had a negative predictive value of 1.0 (95 percent CI is 0.88 to 1.0) and a sensitivity of 1.0 (95 percent CI is 0.82 to 1.0).
Conclusion:
The two identified predictors offer an estimate of the risk of serious bacterial infection in children aged three to 36 months with fever without source.
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