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Predictors of serious bacterial infection in children aged 3 to 36 months with fever without source

P L Goh1, S W Lee, E H Wong

  • 1Accident and Emergency Department, Changi General Hospital, Singapore. pak_liang_goh@cgh.com.sg

Insights

Identifying serious bacterial infection in children with fever without source is challenging. Elevated white blood cell counts and prolonged fever duration are key predictors of infection risk in young children.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatrics
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Clinical Diagnostics

Background:

  • Fever without source is common in children, but identifying serious bacterial infections (SBIs) remains difficult.
  • Current methods for risk stratification of SBIs in febrile children are unreliable.
  • This study addresses the need for better predictors of SBI in young children.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify predictors of serious bacterial infection in children aged 3-36 months presenting with fever without source.
  • To improve the diagnostic accuracy for SBI in pediatric patients.
  • To provide clinicians with evidence-based tools for risk assessment.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective review of inpatient records from a major pediatric hospital.
  • Inclusion criteria: children aged 3-36 months with fever without source (ICD codes 038, 079, 780).
  • Statistical analysis to identify significant predictors of SBI.

Main Results:

  • 17 out of 86 (19.8%) enrolled children had SBI.
  • White blood cell (WBC) count ≥16,000/mm³ (OR 6.9) and fever duration >3 days (OR 3.8) were significant predictors of SBI.
  • A combination of WBC <16,000/mm³ and fever ≤3 days showed high negative predictive value (1.0) and sensitivity (1.0).

Conclusions:

  • Duration of fever and WBC count are significant predictors of SBI in children with fever without source.
  • These predictors can help estimate the risk of SBI in the target pediatric population.
  • The findings support improved clinical decision-making for febrile children.
Abstract

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