Modeling ozone and aerosol formation and transport in the pacific northwest with the community Multi-Scale Air...

The Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system was used to investigate ozone and aerosol concentrations in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) during hot summertime conditions during July 1-15, 1996. Two emission inventories (El) were developed: emissions for the first El were based upon the National Emission Trend 1996 (NET96) database and the BEIS2 biogenic emission model, and emissions for the second El were developed through a "bottom up" approach that included biogenic emissions obtained from the GLOBEIS model. The two simulations showed that elevated PM2.5 concentrations occurred near and downwind of the Interstate-5 corridor along the foothills of the Cascade Mountains and in forested areas of central Idaho. The relative contributions of organic and inorganic aerosols varied by region, but generally organic aerosols constituted the largest fraction of PM2.5. In wilderness areas near the 1-5 corridor, organic carbon from anthropogenic sources contributed approximately 50% of the total organic carbon with the remainder from biogenic precursors, while in wilderness areas in Idaho, biogenic organic carbon accounted for 80% of the total organic aerosol. Regional analysis of the secondary organic aerosol formation in the Columbia River Gorge, Central Idaho, and the Olympics/Puget Sound showed that the production rate of secondary organic carbon depends on local terpene concentrations and the local oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere, which was strongly influenced by anthropogenic emissions. Comparison with observations from 12 IMPROVE sites and 21 ozone monitoring sites showed that results from the two El simulations generally bracketed the average observed PM parameters and that errors calculated for the model results were within acceptable bounds. Analysis across all statistical parameters indicated that the NW-AIRQUEST El solution performed better at predicting PM2.5, PM1, and beta(ext) even though organic carbon PM was over-predicted, and the NET96 El solution performed better with regard to the inorganic aerosols. For the NW-AIRQUEST El solution, the normalized bias was 30% and the normalized absolute error was 49% for PM2.5 mass. The NW-AIRQUEST solution slightly overestimated peak hourly ozone downwind of urban areas, while the NET96 solution slightly underestimated peak values, and both solutions over-predicted average 03 concentrations across the domain by approximately 6 ppb.