Estimation of mating system parameters when outcrossing events are correlated

Many plant species have mating systems characterized by a mixture of self-fertilization and outcrossing. Statistical estimation of the outcrossing rate has relied on a model of the mating process that assumes that successive outcross events within a family arise from independent draws of pollen from the total population of male plants. Although this assumption is likely to be most appropriate for wind-pollinated plants, it is not appropriate in certain insect-pollinated plants. An alternative model is developed that assumes that successive outcross events within a family involve pollen drawn from a single male parent. The estimation of the parameters that index this model is outlined and a procedure for calculating the variances of the parameter estimates is presented. Monte Carlo simulations of the sampling processes assumed by each model are also presented. The simulations show that application of the incorrect estimation model to data can lead to a large bias in parameter estimates.