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[Future cancer incidents in Germany]
J Haberland1, J Bertz, B Görsch
1Dachdokumentation Krebs, Abteilung Epidemiologie und Gesundheitsberichterstattung, Robert Koch-Institut, Postfach 650261, 13302 Berlin. haberlandj@rki.de
Summary
Cancer incidence in Germany is projected to rise, with an estimated 570,000-590,000 new cases by 2020. Despite increasing cancer cases, mortality rates are expected to decrease due to ongoing trends.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Public Health
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Cancer incidence and mortality trends are crucial for German health policy.
- Long-term cancer data analysis provides insights into disease development.
- Accurate cancer statistics are essential for effective public health planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze historical cancer incidence data in Germany.
- To project future cancer cases and mortality rates up to 2020.
- To inform health policy decisions based on cancer trend predictions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized log-linear models with polynomial trend components for data analysis.
- Employed trend extrapolation to forecast cancer incidence until 2020.
- Estimated national cancer incidences using data from complete regional registries, accounting for incomplete national coverage.
Main Results:
- Cancer incidence in Germany increased from 270,000 cases in 1980 to 420,000 in 2002.
- Projected 570,000 (version 1) or 590,000 (version 9) new cancer cases annually by 2020.
- Observed a decrease in cancer mortality from 1980 to 2002, with a projected further decline to 153,000-158,000 deaths by 2020 if trends continue.
Conclusions:
- Cancer incidence is rising in Germany, necessitating proactive public health strategies.
- Decreasing cancer mortality trends, if sustained, could significantly reduce cancer-related deaths.
- Accurate cancer registry data and demographic projections are vital for reliable future health planning.
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