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Updated: Jul 13, 2026
04:57
Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
A risk index for early node-negative breast cancer.
1New South Wales Breast Cancer Institute, Westmead, New South Wales, Australia. johnb@bci.org.au
The British Journal of Surgery
|April 12, 2006
Summary
The New South Wales Breast Cancer Institute (BCI) Index effectively identifies node-negative breast cancer patients at low risk of relapse. This tool aids in determining which patients may not benefit from adjuvant systemic therapy.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Breast Cancer Research
- Clinical Prognostics
Background:
- Comparing prognostic tools for node-negative breast cancer.
- Evaluating the St Gallen 2001 classification against the BCI Index.
- Focus on patients not receiving adjuvant systemic therapy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the St Gallen 2001 classification with the BCI Index.
- To assess the BCI Index's ability to stratify risk in node-negative breast cancer.
- To identify patient subgroups unlikely to benefit from adjuvant systemic therapy.
Main Methods:
- Utilized prognostic indicators to define BCI risk categories (low, intermediate, high).
- Employed the same variables as the St Gallen classification for BCI Index construction.
- Analyzed 10-year distant relapse-free survival (DRFS) rates.
Main Results:
- BCI low-risk group (40.1% of patients) had a 97.2% 10-year DRFS.
- BCI intermediate-risk group (12.1% of patients) had an 88% 10-year DRFS.
- BCI high-risk group (47.7% of patients) had a 68.4% 10-year DRFS.
Conclusions:
- The BCI Index may identify low-risk patients (2.8% relapse at 10 years) unlikely to benefit from adjuvant systemic therapy.
- The BCI Index may identify intermediate-risk patients (12% relapse at 10 years) with minimal benefit from adjuvant systemic therapy.
- Further validation in other datasets is recommended.
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