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Does red noise increase or decrease extinction risk? Single extreme events versus series of unfavorable conditions.

Monika Schwager1, Karin Johst, Florian Jeltsch

  • 1University of Tübingen, Department of Plant Ecology, Institute for Botany, Auf der Morgenstelle 3, D-72076 Tübingen, Germany.

The American Naturalist
|April 15, 2006
PubMed
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Temporal correlation in environmental fluctuations (red noise) can either increase or decrease population extinction risk. This depends on the interplay between the frequency of extreme events and population sensitivity to environmental changes.

Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Population Dynamics
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Temporal correlation in environmental fluctuations, known as red noise, has shown conflicting effects on population extinction risk.
  • Existing research debates whether red noise increases or decreases extinction risk compared to uncorrelated white noise.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To reconcile conflicting findings on red noise's impact on extinction risk.
  • To elucidate the mechanisms by which red noise influences population persistence.

Main Methods:

  • Theoretical modeling of population dynamics under environmental fluctuations.
  • Analysis of red noise time series properties, specifically autocorrelation.
  • Examination of the influence of noise strength and population sensitivity on extinction risk.

Related Experiment Videos

Main Results:

  • Red noise exhibits two opposing effects: increased probability of consecutive poor conditions (raising extinction risk) and reduced probability of extreme catastrophes (lowering extinction risk).
  • Extinction risk is decreased by temporal correlation when extreme events are likely or population sensitivity is high (e.g., overcompensatory density dependence).
  • Conversely, temporal correlation increases extinction risk when extreme events are rare and population sensitivity is low.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides a unified explanation for previously contradictory results regarding red noise and extinction risk.
  • Understanding the 'color' of environmental noise is critical for predicting population persistence.
  • This research advances the general theory of how environmental variability affects ecological stability.