Trends and future needs in clinical radiology: insights from an academic medical center

Advances in technology, expanding indications and defensive medical practice, in combination with population aging, have all contributed to a substantial increase in utilization of imaging and therapeutic radiology procedures in recent years. Moreover, the integration of education, innovation and research into high-volume workflow, although challenging, is a key requirement in teaching hospitals. Therefore, identifying forthcoming demand in the use of radiology services at a referral center might be of special interest and facilitate health policy planning in this context.

Data regarding conventional radiographic, ultrasonographic and computed tomography (CT) investigations, radiotherapy sessions, and interventional procedures were collected for a 5-year period (2000-2004). Based on these observations, we deployed appropriate models to forecast utilization rates in 2005-2009.

Between 2000 and 2004, ultrasound examinations increased by 31.8%, mammography by 31.6%, CT scans by 17.4%, interventions by 14.5% and radiotherapy sessions by 13.9%, while conventional investigations decreased by 42.5%. We identified significant increasing trends for ultrasound, mammography, CT and interventions (all p<0.001 for linear component). Compared to current levels, the workload for these modalities is expected to rise in the next 5 years by 43%, 31%, 20% and 14%, respectively. Radiotherapy sessions demonstrate an unstable, non-significant increasing trend (p=0.189), while utilization of conventional radiography declines rapidly (p<0.001 for linear trend, 5-year prediction -51%).

In forthcoming years, the demand for radiology services at referral centers will increase substantially. Advances in digital technology alone will not suffice to completely alleviate the need for additional resources and well-trained personnel.