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Testing the irruptive paradigm of large-herbivore dynamics.

David M Forsyth1, Peter Caley

  • 1Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia. dave.forsyth@dse.vic.gov.au

Ecology
|April 28, 2006
PubMed
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Large herbivore populations often exhibit boom-and-bust cycles, known as irruptive dynamics. This study

Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Population Dynamics
  • Wildlife Management

Background:

  • A common theory suggests large herbivore populations irrupt, crash, then stabilize at carrying capacity.
  • Empirical evidence supporting this dominant paradigm has been limited and largely anecdotal.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and evaluate mathematical models describing irruptive population dynamics in large herbivores.
  • To test which model best fits empirical data from ungulate populations.

Main Methods:

  • Developed two novel mathematical models (Caughley and Leopold) for irruptive dynamics.
  • Compared these with existing models (theta-logistic, delayed-logistic).
  • Applied models to analyze population data from seven ungulate populations (five introduced, two post-harvesting).

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Main Results:

  • Six of the seven ungulate populations exhibited irruptive dynamics.
  • The Leopold, Caughley, and delayed-logistic models best described these irruptive patterns.
  • One population did not show irruptive dynamics, fitting the theta-logistic model.

Conclusions:

  • Findings support the widespread occurrence of irruptive dynamics in large herbivore populations.
  • Recommends incorporating irruptive models for more accurate ecological studies and wildlife management.