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Avian flu and possible human pandemic.

Chandrakant Lahariya1, A K Sharma, S K Pradhan

  • 1Department of Community Medicine, Lady Hardinge Medical College, New Delhi 110 001, India. ck1800@rediffmail.com

Indian Pediatrics
|May 3, 2006
PubMed
Summary

Avian flu (H5N1) poses a significant pandemic threat, causing widespread poultry culling and human deaths. Immediate scientific action is crucial for containment, prevention, and prompt treatment to avert a global health crisis.

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Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Medicine
  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Avian influenza, particularly the H5N1 strain, has caused significant global impact since its 1997 Hong Kong outbreak.
  • The disease has led to millions of poultry culls and substantial economic losses worldwide.
  • Recent spread to new countries, including India in 2006, highlights the escalating threat.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the current global threat posed by avian flu (H5N1).
  • To highlight the potential for H5N1 to cause a human influenza pandemic.
  • To emphasize the urgent need for scientific intervention in containment, prevention, and treatment.

Main Methods:

  • Review of global avian flu outbreak data and WHO reports.
  • Analysis of H5N1 virus characteristics, including genetic reassortment potential.
  • Evaluation of human case fatality rates and demographic data.

Main Results:

  • Over 150 million poultry culled in Asia and Europe; 92 human deaths reported.
  • H5N1 virus demonstrates frequent genetic reassortment, increasing human infection risk.
  • High case fatality rate (54%) in human H5N1 infections, predominantly affecting young adults (5-23 years).

Conclusions:

  • The rapid spread and viral reassortment of H5N1 pose a severe pandemic risk.
  • Inadequate vaccines, limited treatment knowledge, and poor public health infrastructure in developing nations exacerbate the threat.
  • Immediate, science-based actions for containment, prevention, and prompt treatment are essential to avert a global influenza pandemic.

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