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Related Experiment Videos

Independent and competing disease risks: implications for host populations in variable environments.

Anna E Jolles1, Rampal S Etienne, Han Olff

  • 1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544-1003, USA. jollesa@science.oregonstate.edu

The American Naturalist
|May 4, 2006
PubMed
Summary

Disease models impact wildlife populations differently depending on whether disease acts independently or competes with other risks. Tuberculosis in African buffalo shows disease effects vary with host age and environmental factors.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Population Dynamics
  • Wildlife Disease

Background:

  • Disease models often assume independent effects, ignoring interactions with other mortality factors.
  • Disease can act as a competing risk, particularly in already weakened or aged individuals.
  • Understanding these dynamics is crucial for accurate wildlife population assessments.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the consequences of independent versus competing disease effects on host population dynamics.
  • To model the influence of environmental variation (density-dependent and independent) on disease impacts.
  • To analyze the specific case of tuberculosis (TB) in African buffalo populations.

Main Methods:

  • Development of population dynamic models incorporating disease as an independent or competing risk.

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  • Inclusion of environmental variation scenarios: density-dependent (rainfall) and density-independent (drought).
  • Analysis of field data from African buffalo populations to assess TB's net effect.

    • Main Results:

    • Independent disease effects cause linear population reductions regardless of environmental variation.
    • Competing disease risks lead to nonlinear population reductions only under density-independent environmental variation.
    • Field data suggest TB's impact on buffalo is intermediate, acting as both independent and competing risk depending on host age.

    Conclusions:

    • Model assumptions regarding disease independence or competition significantly influence predicted population dynamics.
    • Environmental variability, especially density-independent factors, can amplify the effects of competing disease risks.
    • Accurate assessment of wildlife disease impacts requires explicit consideration of disease-environment-host interactions.