Combining population-dynamic and ecophysiological models to predict climate-induced insect range shifts

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Population Dynamics

Background:

• Global climate warming is causing widespread species range shifts.
• Predicting future species distributions under climate change is crucial for conservation.
• The skipper butterfly, Atalopedes campestris, serves as a model organism for studying range dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a population-dynamic model to predict the bioclimatic range shifts of Atalopedes campestris under continued climate warming.
• To investigate the independent and interactive effects of summer and winter temperatures on population growth and range limits.
• To assess the uncertainty in range shift predictions using a parametric bootstrap approach.

Main Methods:

• Developed a population-dynamic model where population growth is a function of temperature.
• Estimated model parameters using existing data for Atalopedes campestris.
• Employed a parametric bootstrap method to quantify prediction uncertainty.

Main Results:

• The model predicts a two-phase range shift response to climate change, with different temperature factors becoming dominant sequentially.
• The acceleration/deceleration of range shifts and changes in the number of generations per year depend on the relative warming rates of summer and winter.
• Predictions show reasonably small confidence intervals even with limited data, suggesting the utility of ecophysiological models.

Conclusions:

• Ecophysiological models are valuable tools for predicting species' range changes in response to climate warming.
• The interaction of summer and winter temperatures creates complex, non-linear range dynamics.
• Model predictions are sensitive to regional thermal landscapes and specific climate warming scenarios, highlighting the need for localized assessments.