Rapidly advancing laying date in a seabird and the changing advantage of early reproduction

1. Bird ringing schemes have collected immense amounts of data on timing of breeding for over 100 years. These data provide an unexploited source of information on temporal change in breeding date. 2. We investigated changes in breeding date of the Arctic tern Sterna paradisaea Pont. in Denmark during 1929-98, using information on ringing date of young. 3. Mean ringing date advanced by over 18 days during 70 years, while there was no temporal change in variance in date. 4. Advanced mean ringing date was explained by an increase in mean temperature during April and May and an increase in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for May. 5. Variance in ringing date increased in years with high temperatures in April and high NAO index values in April. 6. There was changing temporal patterns of selection for early breeding as reflected by analyses of the difference in mean ringing date for Arctic tern young that were subsequently recorded as survivors and mean ringing date for all young. The intensity of selection on breeding date changed from favouring late breeding in the 1930s to favouring early breeding during the 1990s. 7. Analyses of bird ringing information for millions of offspring of hundreds of bird species deposited in national ringing schemes may provide unlimited access to long-term time series of reproductive variables.