Prognostic markers for AIDS

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection causes a number of clinical syndromes and many laboratory abnormalities, often heralding the development of the life-threatening opportunistic infections or malignancies that are known as the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Drawing heavily on the results of prospective cohort studies, particularly those that my colleagues at the National Cancer Institute and I have conducted, this paper reviews the relationship of AIDS to clinical signs and symptoms, immunologic measures, and viral assays. The risk of AIDS in the next 3 years is at least 25 to 50% for HIV-infected subjects who have oral candidiasis, unexplained fever, unexplained weight loss, a CD4+ lymphocyte count below 200 cells/microliter, or combinations of these. Elevated serum levels of beta 2 microglobulin and neopterin also appear to be strong predictive markers of AIDS, but further work is needed in diverse HIV-infected populations, such as intravenous drug users and persons in pattern II countries, such as Haiti and central Africa. Elevated levels of interferon or HIV-p24 antigen in the serum are insensitive but highly specific AIDS markers that may have predictive value independent of CD4 lymphocyte levels. Several potentially valuable immunologic (immunoglobulin levels, tumor necrosis factor, soluble interleukin 2) and virologic (HIV viremia) assays remain to be thoroughly evaluated or technically simplified. Data from prospective cohort studies have provided clinical and laboratory markers of AIDS risk that have proved essential for therapeutic trials and other clinical decisions. As effective treatments for HIV infection and its complications begin to emerge, these marker data will also prove invaluable for mathematic modeling of the scope, course, and public health response to the epidemic.