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Links between annual, Milankovitch and continuum temperature variability.

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Earth's surface temperature variability follows predictable power-law scaling, linked to annual and Milankovitch cycles. This reveals deterministic insolation forcing, not just random processes, controls long-term climate patterns.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Earth System Science
  • Paleoclimatology

Background:

  • Climate variability occurs across all timescales and is interconnected.
  • Earth's surface temperature records show a continuum of variability with power-law scaling.
  • Controls on this continuum variability are poorly understood, often considered stochastic.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between surface temperature variability and astronomical cycles.
  • To determine if continuum variability is deterministic or stochastic.
  • To understand the underlying mechanisms of interannual and longer-period climate variability.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of Earth's surface temperature records.
  • Examination of power-law scaling relationships.
  • Correlation with annual and Milankovitch (23,000- and 41,000-year) cycles.

Main Results:

  • Surface temperature variability exhibits power-law scaling linked to annual and Milankovitch cycles.
  • The annual cycle explains scaling from monthly to decadal periods.
  • Millennial and longer periods correlate with Milankovitch cycles.

Conclusions:

  • Continuum temperature variability is a deterministic response to insolation forcing.
  • This finding provides insight into the mechanisms of climate variability across timescales.
  • The study challenges the view of continuum variability as purely stochastic.