Smoking and the Ø pattern; predictors of transitions through the stages of change

Pre-contemplators, contemplators and preparers have previously been described by distinct scores on pros, social influence and self-efficacy, the Ø pattern. The objective of this study was to replicate this pattern in a sample of adult smokers (n = 554), to longitudinally observe stage sequence and identify predictors for forward and backward stage transition. Three hypotheses were formulated: (i) forward transition from pre-contemplation will be predicted by a higher perception of pros concerning smoking cessation, (ii) backward transition from contemplation will be predicted by a lower perception of pros of quitting smoking and (iii) forward transition from preparation will be predicted by a higher self-efficacy perception concerning smoking cessation. The Ø pattern was replicated successfully. Smokers appeared to be more likely to transition to an adjacent stage than to skip a stage in the sequence. For prediction of stage transition, separate analyses were conducted for pre-contemplators, contemplators and preparers. Respondents transitioning forward were compared with respondents remaining in the same stage or transitioning backward and vice versa. Hypothesis (i) and (iii) were confirmed. Additionally, self-efficacy predicted forward transition from pre-contemplation. Implications towards improving interventions and research concerning stage transition are discussed.