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Socio-environmental influences on adolescents' alcohol outcome expectancies: a prospective analysis
Steven C Martino1, Rebecca L Collins, Phyllis L Ellickson
1RAND, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516, USA. steven_martino@rand.org
Aims:
To investigate the prospective influence of social influence and social bonding variables on the development of alcohol outcome expectancies among adolescents with and without drinking experience.
Design:
Longitudinal data from students in the control schools of a field trial designed to evaluate a school-based drug prevention program.
Setting:
A total of 19 middle schools in South Dakota, USA.
Measurements:
An alcohol outcome expectancy scale administered to 1410 students in grades 8 and 9. After using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to develop an expectancies measure, multiple-group (grade 8 drinkers versus grade 8 non-drinkers) path analysis was used to model 9th grade alcohol expectancies. Grade 8 social influence and bonding variables were used as predictors, controlling for grade 8 expectancies.
Findings:
At the bivariate level, peer and adult influences and social bonding variables were related consistently to alcohol outcome expectancies among drinkers and non-drinkers. A bivariate relationship between alcohol advertising and alcohol expectancies was found among drinkers only. In the multivariate model, greater alcohol use by important adults predicted independently increased alcohol positivity among drinkers; greater perceived approval of alcohol use by parents and peers predicted diminished perceived potency of alcohol among non-drinkers. Advertisement exposure and social bonding variables were not independent predictors of alcohol expectancies in the multivariate model.
Conclusions:
These findings suggest that attempts to alter adolescents' alcohol expectancies are likely to fail unless they address the influence of immediate social models on these beliefs.
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