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Species richness changes lag behind climate change.

Rosa Menéndez1, Adela González Megías, Jane K Hill

  • 1University of York, Department of Biology, (Area 18), PO Box 373, York YO10 5YW, UK. rosa.menendezmartinez@zoo.ox.ac.uk

Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|June 17, 2006
PubMed
Summary

Climate warming is increasing British butterfly species richness, but at one-third the predicted rate. Specialist species are declining as generalists dominate, indicating a significant time lag in community adaptation to climate change.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Change Biology
  • Entomology

Background:

  • Species-energy theory predicts increased species richness in response to climate warming.
  • Northern Hemisphere's cool, species-poor regions are expected to show significant changes.
  • Previous studies suggest a link between climate and species distribution.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of recent climate warming on British butterfly species richness.
  • To compare observed changes in species richness with predictions from species-energy theory.
  • To analyze the time lag in community adaptation to climate change.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of long-term species richness data for British butterflies from 1970-82 onwards.
  • Comparison of observed richness increases with climate change data.

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  • Assessment of species assemblage composition, focusing on specialist vs. generalist species.
  • Evaluation of species introductions to new climatically suitable areas.

    • Main Results:

    • Average species richness of British butterflies has increased since 1970-82.
    • The observed increase in species richness is only one-third of that predicted by climate change.
    • Species assemblages are increasingly dominated by generalist species.
    • Successful introductions of species to new areas confirm a time lag in range expansion.

    Conclusions:

    • Observed increases in species richness lag significantly behind climate change predictions.
    • Community composition is shifting towards generalist species.
    • Full adjustment of species richness and community composition to current climate may take centuries.