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Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change.

J M Gregory1, P Huybrechts

  • 1University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, UK.

Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
|June 20, 2006
PubMed
Summary

This study models ice sheet mass balance using high-resolution data, finding Greenland

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Area of Science:

  • * Glaciology and Climate Science

Background:

  • * Simulating ice sheet surface mass balance demands higher spatial resolution than provided by typical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs).
  • * Narrow ice sheet margins are critical for precipitation and ablation, necessitating detailed climate modeling.

Purpose of the Study:

  • * To develop a method for calculating ice sheet mass balance changes by integrating AOGCM projections with high-resolution climate data.
  • * To project future contributions of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets to sea level rise.

Main Methods:

  • * Combined ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCMs with high-resolution climate model data.
  • * Utilized a 20km ice-sheet mass balance model for detailed calculations.
  • * Analyzed precipitation and ablation changes at ice sheet margins.

Main Results:

  • * Antarctica is projected to have a negative contribution to sea level rise due to increased accumulation.
  • * Greenland is projected to have a positive contribution to sea level rise due to accelerated ablation.
  • * A warming exceeding 4.5+/-0.9K in Greenland could lead to its eventual elimination, raising sea levels by 7m.

Conclusions:

  • * The developed method provides improved projections for ice sheet mass balance.
  • * Greenland's net surface mass balance becomes negative under significant warming, posing a substantial sea level rise risk.
  • * Uncertainties are estimated at 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland, excluding topographic and dynamic changes.

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