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The global atmospheric environment for the next generation.
F Dentener1, D Stevenson, K Ellingsen
1Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, via E. Fermi 1, 1-21020, Ispra, Italy. frank.dentener@jrc.it
Environmental Science & Technology
|June 22, 2006
Summary
Implementing current air quality legislation globally is crucial, as failing to do so will degrade the atmospheric environment. Significant emission reductions offer major benefits for air quality and ecosystems by 2030.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric chemistry and climate science
- Environmental science
- Ecosystem health
Background:
- Air quality, nitrogen deposition, and climate change are interconnected global issues.
- Current air quality legislation and emission reduction potentials are assessed.
- High levels of surface ozone and nitrogen deposition already impact ecosystems worldwide.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000 and 2030.
- To compare the impacts of three emissions scenarios: current legislation (CLE), maximum feasible reductions (MFR), and a pessimistic scenario (IPCC SRES A2).
- To evaluate the effects on surface ozone, nitrogen deposition, and radiative forcing.
Main Methods:
- Utilized 26 state-of-the-art global atmospheric chemistry models.
- Performed ensemble simulations for the years 2000 and 2030.
- Compared model outputs with satellite observations for ozone and NO2.
Main Results:
- Global surface ozone is projected to increase by 2030 under CLE and A2 scenarios, while MFR shows a decrease.
- Climate change is expected to slightly decrease surface ozone.
- Nitrogen deposition above critical loads is projected to increase significantly by 2030, especially under the A2 scenario.
Conclusions:
- Enforcing current air quality legislation is important for mitigating negative environmental impacts.
- Further emission reductions beyond current legislation (MFR scenario) offer substantial benefits for air quality and ecosystems.
- Failure to meet air quality objectives will lead to further degradation of the global atmospheric environment.
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