[Risk stratification in atrial and ventricular arrhythmias]

Atrial fibrillation, the most frequent arrhythmia, has a growing incidence with increasing age and the most important complication of the disease is thromboembolic events that may be prevented by antivitamin K. They are the most efficient therapeutic class for the prevention of these events but they are associated with an increased haemorrhagic risk leading to a reduced prescription in general practice. Optimisation of the management should be based on an individual evaluation of the thromboembolic and haemorrhagic risks, taking into account age, the presence of an associated heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, history of cerebrovascular event, history of previous haemorrhagic event and the ability to achieve a stable target INR. The challenge in ventricular arrhythmias lies in identifying a high risk of sudden death, mainly related to ventricular fibrillation. In patients with structural heart disease, left ventricular dysfunction is the strongest predictor of sudden death. Non invasive markers such as non sustained ventricular tachycardia, late ventricular potentials, decreased heart rate variability and baroreflex sensitivity, and repolarization altemans are further elements to assess risk. However, most of these markers have a poor positive predictive value and a low specificity. In patients with normal hearts, genetic predisposition may in the future identify high risk patients. The electrophysiologic study with programmed ventricular stimulation remains a costly and invasive method and only has a strong positive predictive value in ischemic cardiomyopathy. More precise algorithms for risk stratification are thus needed that may help the strategy of therapy with prophylactic implantable cardioverter defibrillator in the future.