Quantitative risk assessment case study: smuggled meats as disease vectors

Area of Science:

• Veterinary epidemiology
• Quantitative risk assessment
• Animal disease surveillance

Background:

• Outbreaks of foot and mouth disease (FMD), African swine fever (ASF), classical swine fever (CSF), and swine vesicular disease (SVD) incur substantial economic losses and trade restrictions.
• Contaminated meat products represent a potential pathway for pathogen introduction into disease-free regions.
• Great Britain (GB) has stringent import regulations, but illegal meat importation bypasses these controls.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the disease risk posed to GB livestock by the illegal importation of meat products from any global region.
• To develop a quantitative risk assessment model for identifying key risk factors associated with illegal meat imports.
• To explore the complexities and challenges inherent in conducting large-scale animal disease risk assessments.

Main Methods:

• Development of a quantitative risk assessment model tailored to assess the risk of FMD, CSF, ASF, and SVD.
• Analysis of potential contamination pathways through illegally imported meat products.
• Identification of major contributing factors to the overall disease risk.

Main Results:

• The study identified specific meat products and import routes that present the highest risk of pathogen introduction.
• The quantitative model successfully highlighted critical control points within the illegal importation chain.
• Significant challenges were encountered in data acquisition and model parameterization for a global scope.

Conclusions:

• Illegal meat importation presents a tangible and significant threat to GB's livestock health from FMD, ASF, CSF, and SVD.
• The developed risk assessment model provides a framework for understanding and managing risks associated with illicit trade.
• Continued vigilance and targeted surveillance are essential to prevent the introduction of these high-consequence animal diseases.