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Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant.

Tracey J Regan1, Michael A McCarthy, Peter W J Baxter

  • 1The Ecology Centre, School of Integrative Biology, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia. t.regan@uq.edu.au

Ecology Letters
|June 27, 2006
PubMed
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Declaring invasive species eradication is challenging due to imperfect detection. An economic approach suggests stopping surveys when expected costs exceed benefits, minimizing net expenses for effective invasive species management.

Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Environmental Economics

Background:

  • Invasive species eradication efforts often face challenges due to imperfect detection methods and persistent seed banks.
  • Current practices for declaring eradication rely on ad hoc decisions, seed bank longevity estimations, or arbitrary confidence thresholds.
  • These methods may not be scientifically or economically optimal for determining successful eradication.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and evaluate an economic framework for determining the optimal stopping time for invasive species surveys.
  • To minimize the net expected cost of eradication programs by balancing survey costs against potential damage costs.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a theoretical model using stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal number of years of absent surveys.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Formulation of an economic approach that compares the expected costs of continued surveying with the expected benefits of confirmed eradication.
  • Application of the model to a case study of *Helenium amarum* eradication.

    • Main Results:

    • The optimal stopping time represents a trade-off between ongoing survey expenses and the risks associated with premature eradication declaration.
    • A simple rule of thumb demonstrated comparable results to the exact optimal solution derived from stochastic dynamic programming.
    • Analysis of the *Helenium amarum* eradication program indicated that the stopping time was precautionary, considering the parameter ranges.

    Conclusions:

    • An economic approach provides a more robust method for determining eradication stopping times than arbitrary confidence levels.
    • The optimal stopping time balances the costs of continued monitoring against the potential economic and ecological impacts of species resurgence.
    • The developed framework offers a valuable tool for optimizing resource allocation in invasive species management programs.