A statistical model predicting high hepatocyte proliferation index and the risk of developing hepatocellular...

Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis is 4% per year. Although cost-effective, current screening could be improved.

To develop a statistical model including non-invasive parameters able to identify patients at high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma.

One hundred and fifty-eight patients (73F:85M) with compensated chronic hepatitis C virus liver disease underwent evaluation, including argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions proliferation index, and were followed up for 56.18 +/- 1.44 months.

Fifty-six patients had chronic hepatitis without cirrhosis and low argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions proliferation index (< or =25%), 65 had hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis and low argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions proliferation index and 37 had hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis and high argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions proliferation index (>25%). Groups were similar for gender and viral genotype distribution. None of the patients with chronic hepatitis without cirrhosis developed hepatocellular carcinoma, compared with 6.1% of low argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions proliferation index and 30.6% of high argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions proliferation index (P = 0.002). By multivariable logistic regression analysis, the following parameters were independently associated with hepatocellular carcinoma development and used for the development of the statistical model: platelets (OR 0.98), gamma-globulins (OR 0.111), alanine aminotransferase/aspartate aminotransferase ratio (OR 0.07), serum ferritin (OR 1.0) and ultrasonographic pattern (coarse OR 2.9, coarse nodular OR 10.12). The statistical model properly allocated 95.9% of patients with low argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions proliferation index and 72.2% of patients with high argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions proliferation index.

The model, to be validated in large prospective studies, may help tailoring screening according to the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma development.