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Probability and delay in commitment.

H Rachlin, A Castrogiovanni, D Cross

    Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior
    |November 1, 1987
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Human subjects preferred smaller, more certain rewards when given a choice, especially when initial access probability was low. These findings suggest probabilities in decision-making may function similarly to temporal delays.

    Area of Science:

    • Behavioral Economics
    • Decision Science
    • Animal Behavior

    Background:

    • Understanding choice behavior under uncertainty is crucial in economics and psychology.
    • Previous research with pigeons (Rachlin & Green, 1972) explored similar probabilistic choices.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To investigate human decision-making in a two-stage choice paradigm involving probabilistic rewards.
    • To examine how varying probabilities of accessing a second choice influence preferences.
    • To explore the potential interpretation of probabilistic outcomes as temporal delays.

    Main Methods:

    • Human subjects participated in a two-stage choice experiment.
    • Stage one involved choosing between immediate commitment to a large, low-probability reward or probabilistic access to a second stage.

    Related Experiment Videos

  • Stage two offered a choice between a small, high-probability reward and a large, low-probability reward.

    • Main Results:

    • In the second stage, subjects consistently preferred the small, high-probability reward.
    • When the first-stage probability of accessing the second choice was high, subjects favored the choice path.
    • Conversely, with a low first-stage probability, subjects opted for the immediate commitment to the large, low-probability reward.

    Conclusions:

    • Human choice behavior in this paradigm mirrors findings in pigeons, suggesting conserved decision-making principles.
    • The results support the hypothesis that probabilities can be psychologically equivalent to delays in decision-making.
    • Contextual probability significantly influences the preference for immediate versus delayed, or certain versus uncertain, outcomes.