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Related Experiment Videos

Enabling a powerful marine and offshore decision-support solution through Bayesian network technique.

A G Eleye-Datubo1, A Wall, A Saajedi

  • 1Marine, Offshore & Transport Research Group, School of Engineering, Liverpool John Moores University, Byrom Street, Liverpool, L3 3AF, UK.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|July 13, 2006
PubMed
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Bayesian networks (BN) offer a practical solution for risk assessment in safety-critical marine systems. This method realistically handles uncertainties and simplifies risk analysis, improving decision-making under uncertainty.

Area of Science:

  • Marine Engineering
  • Risk Management
  • Decision Analysis

Background:

  • Safety-critical marine and offshore systems require robust decision-making under uncertainty.
  • Incremental data acquisition poses challenges for traditional risk assessment methods.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a practical solution for decision-making in uncertain environments for marine and offshore systems.
  • To demonstrate the feasibility of Bayesian networks (BN) and influence diagrams (ID) for risk assessment.

Main Methods:

  • Utilizing Bayesian network (BN) methodology for probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty.
  • Employing Bayes' rule/theorem for inference processing.
  • Expanding BN with decision and utility nodes to form influence diagrams (ID).

Related Experiment Videos

  • Developing models using commercial computer tools.

    • Main Results:

    • Demonstrated the feasibility of BN and ID in a marine evacuation scenario.
    • Showcased BN and ID application in assessing collision risks for authorized vessels to floating, production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) units.
    • Conducted sensitivity analysis and validation of the results.

    Conclusions:

    • Bayesian networks provide a realistic and effective approach to manage uncertainties in safety-critical marine applications.
    • Influence diagrams enhance Bayesian networks by incorporating decision-making elements, facilitating more comprehensive risk analysis.
    • The proposed methodology offers a powerful tool for improving safety and decision-making in the maritime and offshore industries.