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Post-Chernobyl thyroid cancers in Ukraine. Report 2: risk analysis
I Likhtarov1, L Kovgan, S Vavilov
1Radiation Protection Institute ATS Ukraine, Scientific Centre for Radiation Medicine AMS of Ukraine, Melnikova 53, 04050 Kyiv, Ukraine.
Radiation Research
|August 3, 2006
Summary
The Chornobyl accident led to widespread radioactive iodine ((131)I) exposure, significantly increasing thyroid cancer risk in children and adolescents. This study quantifies that risk, confirming a strong dose-response relationship in Northern Ukraine.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health
- Nuclear Medicine
- Epidemiology
Background:
- The 1986 Chornobyl disaster caused widespread radioactive iodine ((131)I) exposure, particularly affecting children.
- Previous research linked (131)I exposure to increased thyroid cancer rates, but quantified risk estimates remain limited due to study constraints.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the dose-response relationship between radioactive iodine ((131)I) thyroid dose and thyroid cancer incidence.
- To provide updated risk estimates for thyroid cancer following the Chornobyl accident in a highly exposed population.
Main Methods:
- An ecological study was conducted on 301,907 individuals aged 1-18 at the time of the Chornobyl accident in three northern Ukrainian oblasts.
- Thyroid doses were estimated individually or individualized based on direct measurements, and 232 histologically confirmed thyroid cancer cases diagnosed between 1990-2001 were analyzed.
- Dose-response analyses accounted for variations in ultrasound examination rates across the study regions.
Main Results:
- An excess relative risk of 8.0 per gray (Gy) of (131)I thyroid dose was estimated (95% CI = 4.6-15).
- The excess absolute risk was estimated at 1.5 per 10,000 person-years per gray (95% CI = 1.2-1.9).
- These findings align with other studies on radiation exposure in Chornobyl-affected populations.
Conclusions:
- Radioactive iodine ((131)I) exposure from the Chornobyl accident is strongly associated with an increased risk of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents.
- The quantified risk estimates provide valuable data for understanding the long-term health consequences of nuclear accidents.
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