Foreign-born emigration: a new approach and estimates based on matched CPS files.

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Sociology
• Population Studies

Background:

• Accurate population estimates require measuring fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration.
• Foreign-born emigration is particularly difficult to quantify using traditional indirect methods.
• Residual methods are sensitive to errors and unsuitable for recent immigrant populations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce a novel method for estimating foreign-born emigration.
• To leverage the Current Population Survey (CPS) sample design for improved emigration measurement.
• To provide more accurate emigration data, especially for recent arrivals.

Main Methods:

• Utilizing longitudinal data from repeated interviews within the Current Population Survey (CPS).
• Tracking individuals present in the first March Supplement but absent in the subsequent one.
• Applying statistical techniques to estimate emigration proportions among non-present individuals.

Main Results:

• The new method yields emigration estimates comparable to residual methods for long-term residents.
• Higher and seemingly more accurate emigration estimates were observed for recent arrivals.
• Estimates were generated by age, sex, region of birth, and duration of residence, subject to sample size constraints.

Conclusions:

• The proposed CPS-based method offers a more accurate approach to estimating foreign-born emigration, particularly for recent immigrants.
• This method enhances the utility of postcensal population estimates by improving a key demographic component.
• Further research may refine estimates by addressing sample size limitations and exploring additional data sources.