The predictive value of exercise testing for survival among 75-year-old men and women

All 75-year-olds born in 1914 and living in the city of Jyväskylä, central Finland (n=388) were invited to study the predictive value of exercise test for mortality. Subjects who entered the laboratory (n=295) were to have a standard pre-test evaluation and perform a cycle ergometer exercise test. Subjects with complete background, exercise-test status and mortality data (n=282) were divided into three groups according to exercise-test status: a non-exercise test group (n=79), an exercise-test termination group (n=95), and an exercise-test completion group (n=108). Mortality was followed up for 9 years. The multivariate hazard ratio (HR) for death among the non-exercise test group compared with exercise-test completion group was 1.87 (CI 1.19-2.94). The multivariate HR for death among the exercise-test termination group compared with the exercise-test completion group was 0.95 (CI 0.58-1.54). High cycling power (W/kg body weight) in the exercise-test completion group was associated with a decreased risk for death with a multivariate HR 0.14 (CI 0.05-0.38). Performing an exercise test serves information on the risk of death that is incremental to clinical data and traditional risk factors of death in elderly people.