Objectives for multiple-species conservation planning

Area of Science:

• Conservation Biology
• Decision Theory
• Ecology

Background:

• Conservation planning requires clear objectives, but broad goals like maximizing biodiversity are often too vague for practical application.
• Assessing extinction risk for single species is common, yet combining these risks into a single objective function for multiple species remains a challenge.

Purpose of the Study:

• To translate the general goal of maximizing species viability into explicit, quantifiable objectives for decision-theoretic conservation planning.
• To formulate and compare different objective functions based on the extinction risk of multiple species.

Main Methods:

• Developed several objective functions representing different conservation approaches and threat levels.
• Illustrated differences between objective functions using simple examples, focusing on joint extinction probabilities and expected extinctions.
• Analyzed the impact of correlations in extinction probabilities on decision-making.

Main Results:

• Objective functions based on joint extinction probabilities can be misleading if extinction correlations are unknown.
• Additive objectives, such as minimizing the expected number of extinctions, avoid these anomalies.
• Different objective functions can lead to contrasting rankings of conservation management options.

Conclusions:

• The selection of an objective function is a critical determinant in conservation decision-making.
• Decision-makers must carefully consider and define their conservation goals to ensure effective planning and resource allocation.
• Explicitly formulating objectives based on multi-species extinction risk enhances the utility of decision-theoretic approaches in conservation.