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Recent asthma exacerbations: a key predictor of future exacerbations
Mary K Miller1, June H Lee, Dave P Miller
1Genentech, Inc., South San Francisco, CA 94080, USA. mkmiller@gene.com
Respiratory Medicine
|August 18, 2006
Summary
Patients with recent severe asthma exacerbations face a significantly higher risk of future events. This finding highlights the importance of considering exacerbation history in managing severe asthma.
Area of Science:
- Pulmonology
- Clinical Epidemiology
Background:
- Severe or difficult-to-treat asthma poses significant challenges in patient management.
- Asthma exacerbations can lead to emergency visits, hospitalizations, and reduced quality of life.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine if recent severe asthma exacerbations predict future exacerbations in patients with severe or difficult-to-treat asthma.
Main Methods:
- A 1.5-year prospective analysis of 2780 adult patients was conducted.
- Severe exacerbations were defined as emergency department visits or hospitalizations within the prior 3 months.
- Statistical adjustments were made for demographic, clinical factors, asthma severity, and control.
Main Results:
- Patients with a recent severe exacerbation had a 6.33-fold increased risk of future exacerbations (OR=6.33, 95% CI 4.57-8.76).
- This risk remained significant after adjusting for confounders (OR=3.77, 95% CI 2.62-5.43).
- Risk was elevated across various asthma severity and control metrics.
Conclusions:
- Recent severe asthma exacerbations are a strong, independent predictor of future exacerbations.
- Exacerbation history should be a key component in assessing patients with severe or difficult-to-treat asthma.
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