Agricultural residue availability in the United States

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to forecast US energy production, consumption, and price trends for a 25-yr-time horizon. Biomass is one of the technologies within NEMS, which plays a key role in several scenarios. An endogenously determined biomass supply schedule is used to derive the price-quantity relationship of biomass. There are four components to the NEMS biomass supply schedule including: agricultural residues, energy crops, forestry residues, and urban wood waste/mill residues. The EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2005 includes updated estimates of the agricultural residue portion of the biomass supply schedule. The changes from previous agricultural residue supply estimates include: revised assumptions concerning corn stover and wheat straw residue availabilities, inclusion of non-corn and non-wheat agricultural residues (such as barley, rice straw, and sugarcane bagasse), and the implementation of assumptions concerning increases in no-till farming. This article will discuss the impact of these changes on the supply schedule.