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Coronary heart disease policy models: a systematic review
Belgin Unal1, Simon Capewell, Julia Alison Critchley
1Department of Public Health, Dokuz Eylul University School of Medicine, Izmir, Turkey. belgina@liv.ac.uk
BMC Public Health
|August 22, 2006
Summary
This review evaluated coronary heart disease (CHD) policy models, finding significant variation in quality and utility. Few models are validated, highlighting the need for explicit statements on aims, assumptions, and limitations before policy use.
Area of Science:
- Health Policy
- Epidemiology
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Coronary heart disease (CHD) prevention and treatment are complex.
- Various models exist to explain past trends and predict future possibilities.
- This systematic review evaluates the strengths and limitations of existing CHD policy models.
Purpose of the Study:
- To systematically review and evaluate existing coronary heart disease (CHD) policy models.
- To assess the strengths and limitations of these models for informing public health policy.
Main Methods:
- A comprehensive search strategy was executed in MEDLINE and EMBASE databases.
- Reference lists of relevant articles and reviews were manually searched.
- Two independent reviewers appraised and included CHD modelling studies reporting key outcomes.
Main Results:
- 75 articles describing 42 distinct CHD models were identified.
- Micro-simulation (29%), cell-based (19%), and life table (19%) were common modelling methods.
- Models varied in scope, with only 12% comprehensively including both risk factors and treatments.
Conclusions:
- Existing CHD policy models exhibit considerable variation in depth, breadth, quality, utility, and versatility.
- Few models have undergone rigorous calibration against observed data or external validation.
- Models require explicit statements of aims, assumptions, outputs, strengths, and limitations for policy aid acceptance.
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