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Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change
Mark W Schwartz1, Louis R Iverson, Anantha M Prasad
1Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA. mwschwartz@ucdavis.edu
Ecology
|August 23, 2006
Summary
Climate change increases extinction risk for species with smaller distributions. High prediction uncertainty for narrow endemics creates a conservation dilemma, risking mistaken inaction on global warming.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Change Biology
- Conservation Science
Background:
- Global warming is predicted to cause widespread species extinction.
- Extinction risk is influenced by a species' distribution breadth under climate change scenarios.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine the relationship between distribution breadth, climate change vulnerability, and model fit for trees and birds in the eastern United States.
- To understand the conservation implications of prediction uncertainty for narrowly distributed species.
Main Methods:
- Utilized joint climate and environment models to assess species.
- Analyzed vulnerability and model fit as functions of distribution size.
- Focused on avian and tree species in the eastern U.S.
Main Results:
- Extinction vulnerability was found to increase as distribution size decreased.
- Model fit decreased with decreasing distribution size, leading to high prediction uncertainty for narrow endemics.
- High uncertainty presents a conservation dilemma, potentially leading to under- or over-prediction of extinction risk.
Conclusions:
- Narrowly distributed species face higher extinction risks due to climate change.
- Prediction uncertainty for these species complicates conservation efforts and can lead to mistaken inaction.
- Effective conservation strategies must account for the unique challenges posed by narrowly distributed species facing climate change.
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