Risk factors for relapse after complete remission with high-dose therapy for multiple myeloma

Complete remission (CR) is an important surrogate for long-term survival for patients with multiple myeloma. However, most patients achieving CR eventually relapse and die from their disease. To better define the predictors of relapse, we conducted a retrospective review of outcomes for patients who achieved CR after autografting at our institution. From January 1990 to December 2002, among >400 patients transplanted, 81 (54 males and 27 females) achieved CR. With a median follow up of 58 months for all surviving patients, the 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 33% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 23 - 44] and 5-year overall survival (OS) was 67% (95% CI = 54 - 77). Median PFS was 37 months and median OS has not yet been reached. On multivariate analysis, high tumor mass at diagnosis emerged as a predictor of poor outcome. We conclude that high tumor mass at diagnosis predicts a significantly shorter remission duration for myeloma patients undergoing autografting.