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From science to policy--when are scientific results certain enough?
Annike I Totlandsdal1, Erik Dybing, Per E Schwarze
1Division of Environmental Medicine, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, NO-0403 Oslo, Norway. annike.irene.totlandsdal@fhi.no
Summary
Growing evidence links air pollution to health issues, yet policy action is hindered by scientific uncertainty. Defining and agreeing on scientific certainty levels is crucial for effective air quality strategies.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Public Health Policy
- Risk Assessment
Background:
- Increasing scientific evidence links air pollution to adverse health outcomes, necessitating improved air quality measures.
- The European Commission's 2005 draft directive on air quality faced criticism for insufficient action, partly due to arguments of scientific uncertainty.
- Policy decisions regarding air pollution are influenced by factors beyond scientific evidence.
Purpose of the Study:
- To discuss how scientific uncertainty can impede the translation of scientific findings into policy actions.
- To explore the challenges in defining and agreeing upon levels of scientific certainty in environmental policy.
- To highlight the need for better understanding and management of scientific uncertainty in policy-making.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of the European Commission's air quality strategy and subsequent criticisms.
- Discussion of the role of scientific uncertainty in policy debates.
- Examination of a case study with discordant views on scientific uncertainty.
Main Results:
- Ambiguity in scientific uncertainty can obstruct the development of concrete policy options.
- Discordant views on the uncertainty of scientific findings are common in policy contexts.
- Achieving complete scientific certainty is unlikely, posing challenges for policy implementation.
Conclusions:
- Clear definitions and agreed-upon levels of scientific certainty are needed for effective policy-making.
- Enhanced dialogue between scientific and political communities on managing uncertainty is beneficial.
- Recognizing that scientific evidence is not the sole determinant of policy decisions is essential.
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