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C4 Pathway
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C4 Pathway
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Published on: March 6, 2019
A phyloclimatic study of Cyclamen.
Chris Yesson1, Alastair Culham
1Centre for Plant Diversity and Systematics, Plant Science Laboratories, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Reading, Reading, Berks, England RG6 6AS, UK. c.yesson@rdg.ac.uk
BMC Evolutionary Biology
|September 22, 2006
Summary
Climate change threatens Cyclamen survival, with most species predicted to lose suitable habitat by the 2050s. A northward shift in climate suitability is expected, highlighting extinction risks for many species, especially those with limited dispersal.
Area of Science:
- Ecology and evolutionary biology
- Climate change impacts on biodiversity
- Phylogenetic and bioclimatic niche modeling
Background:
- Global climate change poses risks to plant distribution, speciation, and extinction.
- Bioclimatic niche modeling is crucial for assessing climate change impacts on species.
- Phylogenetic diversification is linked to bioclimatic niche models, necessitating future distribution predictions from a phylogenetic viewpoint.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of predicted climate change on the future distribution of the plant genus Cyclamen.
- To examine future distribution predictions from a phylogenetic perspective.
- To assess extinction risks for Cyclamen species under climate change scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Bioclimatic niche modeling using BIOCLIM and Maxent models.
- Reconstruction of climate preferences for hypothetical ancestral Cyclamen.
- Analysis of future climate scenarios for the 2050s.
- Phylogenetic analysis of species' climatic characteristics and extinction risks.
Main Results:
- Phylogenetic structure was observed for some climatic characteristics in Cyclamen.
- Most Cyclamen species possess distinct climatic niches, except for some wide-ranging species.
- The ancestral Cyclamen lineage preferred a seasonal Mediterranean climate.
- A northward shift in climatic suitability is predicted for Cyclamen by the 2050s.
- All Cyclamen species are predicted to experience a decrease in suitable climatic areas, increasing extinction risk.
Conclusions:
- Phylogenetic examination of bioclimatic niches offers novel interpretations and testable hypotheses about lineage development.
- A northward shift in climatic suitability for Cyclamen is anticipated.
- Dispersal is critical for survival, but challenging for ant-dispersed Cyclamen.
- Human-assisted dispersal may be necessary for species to reach suitable future environments.
- Major Cyclamen lineages may survive climate change despite potential species loss.