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Published on: May 30, 2013
The Pediatric AIDS Severity Score (PASS): a multidimensional AIDS-severity adjustment for pediatric HIV infection
George R Seage1, Kate Buchacz, Geoffrey A Weinberg
1Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA. gseage@hsph.harvard.edu
Insights
A new Pediatric AIDS Severity Score (PASS) effectively predicts mortality in perinatally HIV-infected children, aiding treatment assessment when clinical trials are not feasible.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Infectious Diseases
- Clinical Epidemiology
- HIV/AIDS Research
Background:
- A validated severity staging system is crucial for managing perinatally HIV-infected children.
- Existing systems may not adequately predict mortality in this vulnerable population.
- Clinical and research applications require a reliable prognostic tool.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate the Pediatric AIDS Severity Score (PASS).
- To identify key predictors of mortality in perinatally HIV-infected children.
- To provide a tool for assessing treatment effectiveness.
Main Methods:
- Developed PASS using baseline data from 786 perinatally HIV-infected children (pre-HAART era).
- Validated PASS in a separate cohort of 392 children from the same source population.
- Utilized Kaplan-Meier, proportional hazards models, and Harrell's C statistic for analysis.
Main Results:
- Overall survival was 95% at 1 year and 90% at 2 years.
- The "Full" PASS model identified CD4% <15, CDC category C, low BMI, poor neuropsychological score, low general health rating, and elevated symptoms as significant mortality predictors.
- The Full PASS demonstrated high predictive accuracy (C statistic = 0.841).
Conclusions:
- The Pediatric AIDS Severity Score (PASS) is a validated tool for predicting mortality in children with perinatal HIV infection.
- PASS can aid in evaluating the effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART).
- It is particularly useful when ethical or logistical constraints limit randomized clinical trials.
Background:
A severity staging system predictive of mortality for perinatally HIV-infected children is needed for clinical and research purposes.
Methods:
A pediatric AIDS severity score (PASS) was developed using baseline sociodemographic, clinical, immunologic, and functional measures obtained from 786 perinatally HIV-infected children enrolled into a prospective cohort study (PACTG 219) in the pre-highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) era (pre-1996). PASS was then validated among 392 perinatally HIV-infected children randomly sampled from the original source population (n = 1178). Survival estimates and hazard ratios (HRs) were obtained using the Kaplan-Meier method and proportional hazards models, respectively. The most predictive models were determined using Harrell's "C" statistic.
Results:
Overall survival was 95% and 90% at 1 and 2 years of follow-up, respectively. The most comprehensive model for predicting mortality, termed the "Full" PASS, included CD4% <15 (HR = 3.9), CDC category C (HR = 2.6), BMI <10% (HR = 2.4), a low (<70) neuropsychological score (HR = 2.6), a general health rating <5 (HR = 2.4), and an elevated symptoms score (HR = 1.9). These determinants were highly predictive of mortality (C statistic = 0.841).
Conclusions:
PASS will be helpful in assessing the effectiveness of ART among children with HIV infection, particularly when randomized clinical trials are not possible due to ethical and feasibility concerns.
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