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Modeling future changes to the meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccine program in England and Wales
Caroline L Trotter1, W John Edmunds, Mary E Ramsay
1Immunisation Department, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, London, UK. caroline_trotter@yahoo.co.uk
Insights
The UK meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccine program effectively controls disease. Mathematical modeling suggests a booster dose could enhance protection and optimize the infant immunization schedule.
Area of Science:
- Immunology
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- The UK meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccine program has significantly reduced serogroup C disease incidence.
- Current infant immunization schedules provide short-term protection, potentially leaving children vulnerable later.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict the future epidemiology of serogroup C disease.
- To evaluate the impact of altering the MCC immunization schedule on disease control.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a mathematical model to simulate serogroup C disease spread.
- Assessed disease incidence with and without proposed changes to the vaccination schedule.
Main Results:
- Minimal serogroup C disease cases are predicted in the near future due to sustained herd immunity.
- Introducing a booster dose is projected to increase the overall effectiveness of the MCC program.
Conclusions:
- While herd immunity currently offers protection, a booster dose can further strengthen the MCC program's impact.
- Reducing infant doses may improve cost-effectiveness and accommodate additional vaccines in the childhood immunization schedule.
Abstract:
The UK meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccine program has successfully controlled serogroup C disease, due to high vaccine effectiveness and substantial herd immunity. However, children immunised at 2, 3 and 4 months of age receive only short-term direct protection and may be at risk of disease 15 months after vaccination. To investigate this we applied a mathematical model to predict the future epidemiology of serogroup C disease, with and without changes to the immunization schedule. Only a few cases of serogroup C disease were predicted to occur over the next few years because of persisting herd immunity, even without a change to the vaccine schedule. The inclusion of a booster dose is likely to improve the impact of the MCC program and reducing the number of doses in infancy will improve cost-effectiveness and create space in the schedule for the addition of other vaccines.
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