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How do pathogen evolution and host heterogeneity interact in disease emergence?

Andrew Yates1, Rustom Antia, Roland R Regoes

  • 1Department of Biology, Emory University, 1510 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.

Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|October 4, 2006
PubMed
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Host heterogeneity's impact on infectious disease spread is complex. Contrary to prior beliefs, it doesn't always increase early extinction risk, especially when pathogen adaptation is needed for emergence.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Real-world epidemics exhibit parameter heterogeneity.
  • Previous studies suggested heterogeneity increases early extinction risk for pathogens with R(0)>1.
  • Pathogen emergence may require evolutionary adaptation to increase R(0) from <1 to >1.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the influence of host heterogeneity on the emergence of both non-evolving and adapting pathogens.
  • To challenge the assumption that heterogeneity universally favors early extinction.

Main Methods:

  • Mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics.
  • Analysis of pathogen emergence scenarios under varying host heterogeneity.
  • Consideration of both fixed and adaptive pathogen traits.

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Main Results:

  • Host heterogeneity does not consistently increase the likelihood of early disease extinction.
  • When adaptation is necessary for pathogen emergence, host heterogeneity has a minimal effect.
  • Findings contrast with previous research on disease dynamics.

Conclusions:

  • The role of host heterogeneity in epidemic emergence is nuanced and context-dependent.
  • Adaptation requirements significantly alter the impact of heterogeneity.
  • Implications for designing effective vaccination strategies are discussed.