Managing variation in demand: lessons from the UK National Health Service

Managers within the U.S. healthcare system are becoming more aware of the impact of variation in demand on healthcare processes. The UK National Health Service provides a prime example of a system that has experienced the consequences when the issue is not dealt with satisfactorily, having suffered from excessive queues for a prolonged period. These delays are mostly caused by a lack of attention to variation and inappropriate responses to the queues, rather than a capacity shortage. A number of collaborative programs recently have come to grips with many of the causes of the queues in both elective care and emergency care. Although there are still areas that need large-scale improvement, good progress has been made, especially within emergency care. The authors of this article have acted as technical advisors to a number of these improvement programs and have been able to document many of the practices that have helped to reduce or eliminate unnecessary queues and delays across the 200 sites in England that have 24-hour emergency care facilities. Local program managers at these sites continuously reported progress for a period of 18 months. A number of important lessons for both the design and control of healthcare processes have emerged from the collaborative work. These lessons focus on understanding and measurement of demand, capacity planning, reduction of introduced variation, segmentation and streaming of work, process design, capacity yield management, and measurement of variation.