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Multistate cohort models with proportional transfer rates
Robert Schoen1, Vladimir Canudas-Romo
1Department of Sociology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA. schoen@pop.psu.edu
Demography
|October 21, 2006
Summary
This study introduces a new method to track population group changes over time, assuming constant transfer rate ratios. The approach models cohort behavior and fertility patterns, revealing childlessness significantly impacts total fertility rates.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Mathematical Biology
- Sociology
Background:
- Understanding cohort dynamics and state transitions is crucial in demography.
- Existing models often lack a generalized approach for analyzing population behavior across various states over time.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a broadly applicable method for summarizing cohort behavior through different statuses.
- To provide closed-form expressions for cohort size and state composition over age.
- To analyze life course schematics under proportional transfer rate assumptions.
Main Methods:
- Developed a novel approach assuming constant ratios between transfer rates over age.
- Derived closed-form expressions for cohort size and state composition.
- Analyzed two-state and hierarchical multistate models.
- Applied the method to U.S. fertility data from 1997.
Main Results:
- Observed U.S. fertility data exhibit roughly proportional parity progression rates over age.
- The proportional transfer rate approach generates parity-specific trajectories.
- Parity 2 is the modal parity for total fertility rates between 1.40 and 2.61.
- Increases in higher-order parity progression have minor effects on total fertility rates, unlike changes in childlessness.
Conclusions:
- The proportional transfer rate model offers a robust framework for analyzing cohort transitions and fertility patterns.
- The findings highlight the significant impact of childlessness on overall cohort fertility.
- The approach facilitates the analysis of policy or behavioral changes on fertility outcomes.
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