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How could the radiologist shortage have eased?

Jonathan H Sunshine¹, Cristian Meghea

¹Research Department, American College of Radiology, 1891 Preston White Dr., Reston, VA 20191, USA. jsunshine@acr.org

AJR. American Journal of Roentgenology

|October 24, 2006

Summary

A significant diagnostic radiologist shortage eased by 2003 due to a 15% increase in radiologist productivity. Other factors like fewer graduates had minimal impact on resolving the imaging professional deficit.

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Area of Science:

Medical Economics
Radiology Workforce Analysis

Background:

A severe shortage of diagnostic radiologists existed in the United States in 2000.
The imaging workload typically grows faster than the number of practicing radiologists, which should intensify shortages.

Purpose of the Study:

To explain how the diagnostic radiologist shortage significantly eased between 2000 and 2003.
To quantify the contributions of various factors to the resolution of the radiologist shortage.

Main Methods:

Analysis of published data, Medicare imaging volumes, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data.
Review of American College of Radiology (ACR) and American Board of Radiology data on residents and fellows.
Examination of ACR Surveys of Radiologists (1995, 2003) and nighthawk service interviews.

Main Results:

Total imaging volume grew over 20% from 2000-2003, exceeding pre-2000 growth rates.
Productivity, measured as work done per hour, increased by approximately 15% during this period.
Factors such as foreign-trained radiologists, retirement rates, residency graduate numbers, and work hours had minimal impact.

Conclusions:

Increased radiologist productivity was the primary driver in easing the diagnostic radiologist shortage.
Other analyzed factors played a minor role or counteracted the shortage relief.

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