The dynamic prediction of antisocial behavior among forensic psychiatric patients: a prospective field study

Staff ratings of 595 supervised forensic psychiatric patients on the Proximal Risk Factor Scale and the Problem Identification Checklist were completed monthly for an average of 33 months. During the follow-up, there were 265 incidents, 86 of which were violent. The average ratings, excluding those from the index month, differentiated patients who had incidents from those who did not. As well, the average ratings distinguished between individuals with and without incidents of a violent or sexual nature. There were significant increases in staff ratings in the months preceding the index incident month. Within-patient analyses showed that changes in dynamic risk scales comprising the best items for predicting incidents of any kind and violent or sexual incidents were strongly related to their respective outcomes and were significantly related to outcome in an independent sample. Changes in monthly staff ratings predict the imminent occurrence of antisocial and violent behaviors.