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Updated: Jul 18, 2026

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
Different actuarial risk measures produce different risk rankings for sexual offenders
Howard E Barbaree1, Calvin M Langton, Edward J Peacock
1Law and Mental Health Program, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 1001 Queen Street West, Toronto, M6J 1H4, Canada. howard_barbaree@camh.net
Abstract:
Percentile ranks were computed for N=262 sex offenders using each of 5 actuarial risk instruments commonly used with adult sex offenders (RRASOR, Static-99, VRAG, SORAG, and MnSOST-R). Mean differences between percentile ranks obtained by different actuarial measures were found to vary inversely with the correlation between the actuarial scores. Following studies of factor analyses of actuarial items, we argue that the discrepancies among actuarial instruments can be substantially accounted for by the way in which the factor Antisocial Behavior and various factors reflecting sexual deviance are represented among the items contained in each instrument. In the discussion, we provide guidance to clinicians in resolving discrepancies between instruments and we discuss implications for future developments in sex offender risk assessment.
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