Predicting the development of macrovascular disease in people with type 1 diabetes: A 9-year follow-up study

The aim of the article was to use prospectively collected data on people with type 1 diabetes to assess which routinely collected clinical measures predict the development of macrovascular disease in people with type 1 diabetes. Data have been collected in a structured format at an annual review since 1985. For this study, all people with type 1 diabetes in the database in both 1992 and 2001 were ascertained. Data were extracted for a diagnosis of coronary artery disease, stroke, and peripheral vascular disease (macrovascular complications). Presence of other microvascular complications was also ascertained. Forty-one of 404 (10.1%) people had macrovascular disease at the index visit in 1992 and 61 others developed macrovascular complications during follow-up. People who developed macrovascular complications were older (48 +/- 12 versus 36 +/- 11 [SD] years; P = 0.000), had longer duration of diabetes (28 +/- 12 versus 18 +/- 11 years; P = 0.000), higher BMI (26.7 +/- 4.6 versus 25.4 +/- 3.6 kg/m2; P = 0.041), higher base line serum cholesterol (5.9 +/- 1.7 versus 5.2 +/- 1.1 mmol/L, P = 0.007), higher median base line triglyceride levels (1.5 [IQ range 0.9-2.6] versus 1.1 [0.8-1.7] mmol/L; P = 0.002), higher systolic BP (145 +/- 21 versus 129 +/- 20 mmHg; P = 0.000), and higher serum creatinine (102 +/- 57 versus 86 +/- 17 micromol/L; P = 0.038) than those who did not. We found no significant difference in the base line glycated hemoglobin in the two groups. The multivariate model showed that age, duration of diabetes, systolic BP, and serum cholesterol and creatinine levels predicted the development of macrovascular complications, which were also associated with the later development of microalbuminuria. Macrovascular complications developed in 16.8% of people with type 1 diabetes over a 9-year follow-up, and were predicted by potentially modifiable factors including higher BP, BMI, and serum triglyceride and cholesterol levels.