Simulation studies of the fidelity of biomolecular structure ensemble recreation

We examine the ability of Bayesian methods to recreate structural ensembles for partially folded molecules from averaged data. Specifically we test the ability of various algorithms to recreate different transition state ensembles for folding proteins using a multiple replica simulation algorithm using input from "gold standard" reference ensembles that were first generated with a Go-like Hamiltonian having nonpairwise additive terms. A set of low resolution data, which function as the "experimental" phi values, were first constructed from this reference ensemble. The resulting phi values were then treated as one would treat laboratory experimental data and were used as input in the replica reconstruction algorithm. The resulting ensembles of structures obtained by the replica algorithm were compared to the gold standard reference ensemble, from which those "data" were, in fact, obtained. It is found that for a unimodal transition state ensemble with a low barrier, the multiple replica algorithm does recreate the reference ensemble fairly successfully when no experimental error is assumed. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test as well as principal component analysis show that the overlap of the recovered and reference ensembles is significantly enhanced when multiple replicas are used. Reduction of the multiple replica ensembles by clustering successfully yields subensembles with close similarity to the reference ensembles. On the other hand, for a high barrier transition state with two distinct transition state ensembles, the single replica algorithm only samples a few structures of one of the reference ensemble basins. This is due to the fact that the phi values are intrinsically ensemble averaged quantities. The replica algorithm with multiple copies does sample both reference ensemble basins. In contrast to the single replica case, the multiple replicas are constrained to reproduce the average phi values, but allow fluctuations in phi for each individual copy. These fluctuations facilitate a more faithful sampling of the reference ensemble basins. Finally, we test how robustly the reconstruction algorithm can function by introducing errors in phi comparable in magnitude to those suggested by some authors. In this circumstance we observe that the chances of ensemble recovery with the replica algorithm are poor using a single replica, but are improved when multiple copies are used. A multimodal transition state ensemble, however, turns out to be more sensitive to large errors in phi (if appropriately gauged) and attempts at successful recreation of the reference ensemble with simple replica algorithms can fall short.