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Tsunami inundation modeling for western Sumatra.

José C Borrero¹, Kerry Sieh, Mohamed Chlieh

¹Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-2531, USA. jborrero@usc.edu

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|December 16, 2006

Summary

A section of the Sunda megathrust is likely to rupture in the coming decades, potentially causing devastating tsunamis. Coastal communities in Sumatra face significant risks, similar to the 2004 Aceh disaster.

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Area of Science:

Geophysics
Seismology
Tsunami Science

Background:

The Sunda megathrust, south of the 2004 and 2005 earthquake epicenters, is seismically advanced.
Historical great earthquakes in 1797 and 1833 provide context for potential future events.

Purpose of the Study:

To model tsunami propagation and inundation for a high-risk section of the Sunda megathrust.
To assess the potential impact of future tsunamis on coastal Sumatra.

Main Methods:

Numerical modeling of tsunami propagation and inundation.
Comparison of model results with historical tsunami accounts.

Main Results:

Model predictions for flow depths and inundation distances align with historical records.
Simulations of future ruptures indicate flow depths of several meters and inland inundation of kilometers.
Coastal Sumatran communities face substantial tsunami surge exposure.

Conclusions:

The studied section of the Sunda megathrust poses a significant tsunami risk.
Future tsunamis could result in losses comparable to the 2004 Aceh disaster.
Urgent mitigation strategies are needed for vulnerable coastal populations.